June 2009: Volume 35, Number 6
Cancer Incidence Expected to Rise Sharply
New research indicates that the incidence of cancer in the U.S. is expected to rise sharply over the next 2 decades, with much of the increase coming among the elderly and minorities. A larger proportion of new cases also will involve cancers that currently have low survival rates, including liver, stomach, pancreas, and lung. These changing patterns of disease are expected to “exert a substantial stressor on the healthcare system,” according to the study authors.
Total projected cancer incidence will increase by an estimated 45% between 2010 and 2030, with a 67% increase projected in adults ≥ age 65, versus an 11% increase among younger adults. This compares with a projected overall population increase of 19%. The incidence of cancer in minorities over the same period is expected to rise by 99% compared to only a 31% increase in Caucasians. The percentage of cancers diagnosed in older Americans will rise to 70% from 61%, and in minorities, to 28% from 21%.
The most common cancers today are still expected to be the most prevalent in 2030, including prostate, lung and colorectal in men, and breast, lung and colorectal in women. However, the highest percentages of increased incidence are projected to be in stomach (67%), liver (59%), myeloma (57%) and pancreas (55%).
The authors suggest that a variety of resources will be necessary to appropriately address the increased demand for cancer care, including: strategies to increase the pool of oncologists and geriatricians; new prevention strategies; research and infrastructure changes to address disparities in cancer care; and a considerable investment in research generally, with particular emphasis on recruiting minorities in clinical trials, understanding racial differences in cancer biology, and indentifying clinically beneficial, cost-effective treatment strategies for older adults.
The study was published online in the Journal of Clinical Oncology (DOI:10.1200/JCO.2008.20.8983).